Southwest drought would not push the national CPI growth

Southwest drought could affect the country for the price of this issue, the National Development and Reform Commission deputy director of the weekly prices Wang Jun 24, In an interview with "Economic Information Daily," an exclusive interview with reporters, said Southwest drought on rice, rapeseed, sugar, tobacco, offshore company little effect on the price of tea, and sugar crops, tobacco, tea in the CPI in the proportion of very small changes in its price will not push CPI higher.

Zhou Wang Jun said that throughout the drought-stricken areas in accordance with the requirements of State Flood Control Headquarters, and strengthen various measures, the full drought mitigation, the impact of drought on food production will be further reduced. At the same time, the state departments are further increasing the intensity of the southwest arid grain transportation, drought-hit areas of grain market supply is fully guaranteed.

Since autumn 2009, China's southwest and other parts of the low precipitation, temperature high, a sustained drought. Recently, the drought are still developing trend. However, Zhou Wang Jun noted that the drought in south-west while on the local late autumn crop production and the market have a certain influence, but little effect on rice prices across the country.

"Drought every year, every year on food production have a certain impact, this area is significantly smaller than that of cultivated land affected by the drought last year, and the drought have limited impact on the nation's food production." Zhou Wang Jun said.

Data show that at present, the country affected by drought, land area ratio of less than 50% a year earlier. Last year, grain production in north China, northeast, the main producing areas in the serious drought and other natural disasters, are still under the influence of the first 6 years in a row harvest.

At the same time, drought in the southwest while serious, but the southwest is not a major grain-producing areas, including the worst-hit Yunnan Province of food production and consumption, respectively, the country accounted for only 2.7%, 2.5%. According to an agricultural condition monitoring, soil moisture this year's major grain producing areas in the last 10 years, the best year.

"The drought in autumn last year the beginning until the present, the drought was mainly affecting wheat, barley and other winter crops sowing, spring sowing of rice and other crops, little impact." Zhou Wang Jun on the "Economic Information Daily," told reporters.

Of rapeseed, the southwest region of Yunnan Province, the hardest hit is not the main producing areas of rapeseed, the rapeseed production accounts for only 2% of the country; in Sichuan province affected by the drought are mainly non-rapeseed, the main producing areas. Of domestic edible oil consumption, 60% relied on imports. Sharply this year's global oil output, of which soybean production is expected to increase 45 million tons, an increase of 21%, international market there is downward pressure on fuel oil prices, affected by, the domestic edible oil prices would not rise sharply.

Sugar areas, Zhou Wang Jun said, Southwest drought of the sugar production and domestic sugar prices will have a certain influence, but the direct consumption of small consumers of sugar, sugar price fluctuations little impact on consumers.

According to reports, Guangxi, Yunnan is China's main sugar cane producing areas, taking into account the sugar cane is a drought-tolerant crops, the drought on the local sugar cane production will have a certain influence, but little impact, a preliminary estimate of 5 provinces in the southwest of the national production of sugarcane cut the impact of the amount of about 13%.

Affected by the international price of sugar fell sharply in recent days than the domestic price of sugar per ton earlier this month decreased by 300-400 yuan. International market, sugar prices will help alleviate the pressure on domestic sugar prices. Sugar is mainly used as food industrial raw materials consumption. Sugar food industry in general is the use of sugar as an ingredient, sugar, sugar, food enterprises occupy the cost of the total cost share of the small sugar prices on the cost of doing business with the sugar foods role in promoting the corresponding smaller. At the same time, due to fierce competition in the food industry, products, a wide range of similar products among different enterprises an alternative strong sugar prices lead directly to food businesses to improve their existing product prices is unlikely. Thus, sugar prices have little effect on the vast number of consumers.

Leaf area, Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces of tobacco production area accounts for about 55% of the total domestic production. Between late April each year in mid-May is the period of transplanting tobacco seedlings. If the current drought continued until late May after the Southwest will lead to a substantial cut or leaf crops; if obvious before the end of May precipitation, farmers of other crops to compensate for lost production, may increase tobacco production, leading to overcapacity in tobacco.

"At present, the domestic tobacco stocks to meet the industrial enterprises in the past two and a half of the amount of cigarette production. Even if tobacco production is declining dramatically this year, the southwest, it will not affect the domestic tobacco supply, will not lead to higher cigarette prices." Zhou Wang Jun said.

Tea, although tea production in Yunnan Province drought have greater impact, but tea consumption elasticity, price increases little effect on ordinary consumers.

According to statistics, Yunnan Province, China's total tea production accounts for about 13%, of which spring tea tea production in the province accounted for 25% to 30%. Yunnan Province Agriculture Department estimated this year's spring and the province will cut about 50% due to drought, of which spring tea Puer cut about 60%. Affected by the recent purchase price of Pu'er tea has surged more than 20%.

"As the domestic tea production accounts for the proportion of the total output of tea for less than 4%, and the current inventory glut, drought cut production will not affect the market supply." Zhou Wang Jun said.